Liberal star candidate Marc Garneau has decided not to run in the 2009 Federal election. Another victory for Citoyen Dion surely. Garneau was a supporter of Ignatieff’s in the leadership race and had attempted to run in Outremont in the recent by-election:

Garneau became discouraged when Liberal Leader Stephane Dion announced three or four days later he would handpick the Liberal candidate for the riding.

“Mr. Dion said he would choose the nominee and in my own mind I was not sure that I would be that nominee.”

Garneau said he never formally withdrew the nomination papers but he assumed they were no longer relevant because Dion was going to pick the candidate.

While Garneau, who backed Dion’s leadership rival Michael Ignatieff in the leadership race, was diplomatic, throughout the process it appears the party and Dion did little to actively hold on to him as a candidate. While he said some ridings were suggested to him, they were not ridings in which the Liberals had a strong likelihood of winning. [source]

Garneau is not alone in abandoning Dion.

The Vues D’Ici Blog catalogues the collapse of the Liberals in Quebec:
Serge Marcil, General Director of the Party and Director of the next federal campaign in Quebec (appointed in February of this year), is resigning, according to party insiders. Apparently a small circle of Dion’s closest advisors want to pin the whole Outremont fiasco on Marcil. Dion won’t be able to count on Denis Coderre to help with organisation in Quebec, since Coderre won’t be the Quebec lieutenant. Instead, Dion will have to rely on Marcel Proulx (MP Hull-Aylmer), who is being roundly criticised by party insiders for what happened in Outremont. Proulx not only seems devoid of basic organisational skills, he doesn’t even seem to want the job, complaining that it’s a lot of work and doesn’t pay extra.

This all makes me think that an election will come this fall.

Sound political judgement would tell any Liberal that they will go down to a humiliating defeat if there were an election today.  They have no money, they have problems attracting talent, and they are internally divided between Dion and Ignatieff supporters.

To try to bring down the government over the throne speech and precipitate that election would demonstrate a mind-boggling blindness to political reality.

Which is of course why I think that’s just what Dion would do.